The real estate market of 2024 is not just about a price correction following the rise in interest rates. The restructuring of buyer profiles, the tightening of the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) timeline, and the rapid evolution of credit conditions are reshaping decisions at every stage of a project. Here, we decode the technical points that can turn a file upside down.
Restructuring of Buyer Profiles: First-Time Buyers Change the Game
The significant fact is not the decrease in transaction volume. It is the shift in the very structure of buyers. According to the Banque de France, first-time buyers represented about 26% of mortgage loan applicants (excluding renegotiations) between 2019 and 2020, compared to 53% of second-time buyers. Between 2025 and 2026, this ratio has reversed: first-time buyers now account for 44.6% compared to 38.7% for second-time buyers.
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Century 21 confirms this trend on the ground. First-time buyers now represent 18.2% of home buyers (a 9.6% increase year-on-year) and 21.1% of apartment buyers (+6% year-on-year).
In practical terms, this restructuring intensifies competition in the segments targeted by these profiles: small units in city centers, standard houses in the first ring. A second-time buyer selling to buy again finds themselves facing first-time buyers who are better equipped than before, often eligible for the PTZ and having a calibrated contribution for these price ranges.
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To succeed in a real estate project today, it is essential to integrate this new competition into the choice of property and the timing of the offer. The analyses published on actu-immobilier.com allow for tracking these developments month by month.
Mortgage Credit in 2024: Rates, Duration, and Structuring Strategy
After the peak of interest rates in the first half of 2024, the easing initiated by the ECB has mechanically opened a window. Households are borrowing again on significant amounts, a sign that confidence is gradually returning.
However, we observe that this recovery in credit is not benefiting all profiles uniformly. Banks remain selective based on three technical criteria:
- The debt-to-income ratio of 35% remains the HCSF norm. No regulatory easing has occurred on this threshold, despite repeated requests from the sector.
- The maximum duration of 25 years (27 years for new builds with a deferral) limits the borrowing capacity of households without a significant contribution.
- The remaining disposable income after credit charges is subject to enhanced analysis, especially for files close to the debt ceiling.
The most effective structuring strategy in 2024 is to combine a traditional amortizable loan with a PTZ when the profile allows. The PTZ, which finances a portion of the property interest-free, mechanically reduces the overall effort rate and improves the perceived solvency by the bank.
The Pitfall of Premature Credit Redemption
In light of the gradual decline in rates, some borrowers who signed at the peak are considering a redemption. A credit redemption is only profitable if the rate difference exceeds a sufficient threshold to absorb early repayment penalties and the guarantee fees of the new loan. We recommend not initiating this process before having amortized at least one-third of the principal.
DPE Timeline and Energy Inefficient Properties: Constraint or Buying Leverage
The energy performance diagnosis is no longer just a document attached to the sales agreement. It now conditions the very possibility of renting a property. Properties classified as G have been banned from rental since January 1, 2025. Properties classified as F will follow in 2028, and E in 2034.
This timeline creates selling pressure on energy-intensive properties. Landlords who do not wish to undertake energy renovation work are selling, sometimes at significant discounts. For an owner-occupier, buying an energy inefficient property with a quantified renovation plan remains one of the best negotiation levers in the current market.
Easing of the DPE: What Really Changes
A recent easing of the DPE calculation method has reclassified some small properties. Specifically, studios and T2s previously classified as F or G can now be reclassified as E after recalculation, temporarily exempting them from the rental ban.
This measure does not change anything for larger properties or poorly insulated individual houses. It is therefore necessary to check the date of the DPE and request a recalculation if the property is less than 40 m2 and was diagnosed before the new scale came into effect.
Rental Investment: Balancing Gross Yield and Regulatory Risk
Rental investment in 2024 is no longer solely driven by gross yield. The overlap of constraints (DPE, rent control in tight areas, changes in LMNP taxation) requires an analysis based on net yield after work and taxation.
A property classified as D or E, purchased at a discount in a medium-sized city where rental demand is strong, often generates a better net yield than a new property in a tight area subject to rent control. The key lies in the precise calculation of the necessary energy renovation work to achieve at least class D, a threshold that guarantees rental viability until 2034.
Medium-sized cities where the price per square meter remains moderate and where vacancy rates are low offer a more favorable yield/risk ratio than metropolises where yield compression is already advanced.
The real estate market of 2024 rewards files prepared with technical precision. The post-peak credit window, the rise of first-time buyers, and discounts related to the DPE create real opportunities, provided that regulatory and financial parameters are mastered before signing.